External analysts' list

Sorted alphabetically by company
Firm Analyst
Citigroup Andrzej Powierza
Erste Group Thomas Unger
Fio Banka Karel Nedvěd
Goldman Sachs Mikhail Butkov
Ipopema Securities Marta Czajkowska-Baldyga
J&T Banka Milan Lávička
J.P. Morgan Mehmet Sevim
Komerční banka Bohumil Trampota
mBank Michal Konarski
Patria Finance Michal Křikava
Pekao Michal Fidelus
PKO BP Securities Robert Brzoza
Wood & Company Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska

 

Note: To the best of our knowledge, the external analysts listed above cover MONETA Money Bank, a.s. The list may not be complete and may change from time to time. MONETA Money Bank, a.s. will update the list periodically based on information availability. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts made by these analysts on MONETA Money Bank's performance are not opinions, forecasts or predictions of MONETA Money Bank, a.s. or its management. By providing the list above and including these information, MONETA Money Bank, a.s. does not imply its endorsement of or concurrence with such information, conclusions or recommendations and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information. MONETA Money Bank, a.s. does not distribute detailed reports by any of the listed analysts or the rationale for their recommendations.

Target prices and recommendations overview

Sorted by target price. Last update: 17 June 2024
Firm Analyst Recommendation Target Price (CZK) Last report date
J&T Banka Milan Lávička buy 117.0 24 November 2023
J.P. Morgan Mehmet Sevim neutral 112.0 14 June 2024
mBank Michal Konarski buy 110.0 6 May 2024
Pekao Adam Motala hold 107.5 18 March 2024
Citigroup Andrzej Powierza buy 106.0 14 June 2024
Erste Bank Thomas Unger hold 105.0 22 April 2024
Fio Banka Karel Nedvěd accumulate 104.0 9 January 2024
Ipopema Securities Marta Czajkowska-Baldyga buy 103.6 26 July 2021
Komerční banka Bohumil Trampota buy 102.8

19 October 2023

Goldman Sachs Mikhail Butkov neutral 102.0 7 February 2024
PKO BP Securities Robert Brzoza hold 101.2 23 January 2024
Patria Finance Michal Křikava hold 100.0 19 January 2024
Wood & Company Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska hold 90.1 11 July 2023
Average    

104.7

 
Median     104.0  
Minimum     90.1  
Maximum     117.0  

 

Note: To the best of our knowledge, the external analysts listed above cover MONETA Money Bank, a.s. The list may not be complete and may change from time to time. MONETA Money Bank, a.s. will update the list periodically based on information availability. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts made by these analysts on MONETA Money Bank's performance are not opinions, forecasts or predictions of MONETA Money Bank, a.s. or its management. By providing the list above and including these information, MONETA Money Bank, a.s. does not imply its endorsement of or concurrence with such information, conclusions or recommendations and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information. MONETA Money Bank, a.s. does not distribute detailed reports by any of the listed analysts or the rationale for their recommendations.

Comparison of actual results of MONETA Money Bank, a.s. with analysts' estimates

Metrics (CZK m) 1Q 2024 Results  Consensus
MIN AVG MAX # of contributing analysts
Net interest income 2,075 1,928 2,092 2,160 13
Net fee and commission income 740 639 680 716 13
Other income 302 139 232 271 13
Total operating income 3,117 2,814 3,004 3,099 13
Total operating expenses (1,486) (1,568) (1,515) (1,461) 13
Operating profit 1,631 1,334 1,489 1,564 13
Cost of risk (135) (140) (124) (99) 13
Income tax (210) (209) (194) (184) 13
Net profit 1,286 1,044 1,171 1,231 13

 

MONETA Group market guidance, its assumptions and limitations

Date of publishing: 2 February 2024

Medium term market guidance 2024–2028

Metrics 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 CAGR 2024-2028
Total operating income (CZK) ≥12.4bn ≥12.8bn ≥13.5bn ≥14.0bn ≥14.5bn 4.0%
Total operating expenses (CZK) ≤5.8bn ≤5.9bn ≤6.0bn ≤6.2bn ≤6.3bn 2.1%
Operating profit (CZK) ≥6.6bn ≥6.9bn ≥7.5bn ≥7.8bn ≥8.2bn 5.6%
Cost of risk (bps) 10-30 15-35 25-45 25-45 25-45 n/a
Effective tax rate ~14.0% ~15.0% ~15.0% ~15.0% ~15.0% n/a
Net profit (CZK) ≥5.2bn ≥5.3bn ≥5.5bn ≥5.7bn ≥6.0bn 3.6%
Earnings per share (CZK) ≥10.2 ≥10.4 ≥10.8 ≥11.2 ≥11.7 3.6%
Return on tangible equity1 ≥17.0% ≥17.0% ≥17.0% ≥17.0% ≥17.0% n/a


1) Net profit divided by tangible equity.

Material assumptions for medium term guidance

Assumptions 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
GDP growth 1.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5%
Unemployment 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
Inflation 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2W REPO rate (annual average) 5.2% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
1M PRIBOR (annual average) 5.4% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
CZK/EUR 24.6 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.0

 

Loans and deposit growth assumptions

Gross performing loans (CZK bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F CAGR 2023-2028
Retail 179.5 178.8 180.9 183.2 192.1 206.1 2.8%
Commercial 84.4 87.5 91.3 95.7 101.7 105.9 4.6%
Total 263.9 266.4 272.2 278.9 293.8 311.9 3.4%

 

Customer deposits (CZK bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F CAGR 2023-2028
Retail 313.2 321.3 333.9 353.7 372.1 391.1 4.5%
Commercial 86.1 94.0 97.6 101.1 104.7 108.3 4.7%
Total 399.2 415.3 431.5 454.9 476.7 499.4 4.6%

 

Disclaimer for forward looking statements

Forward looking statements may contain estimates, forecasts, targets, and forward-looking statements with respect to the management‘s medium term guidance, profitability, costs, assets, capital position, financial condition, results of operations, dividend and business of MONETA Group. The forward-looking statements assume a purely organic growth without regard to any potential acquisition.

Any forward-looking statements involve material assumptions and subjective judgements which may or may not prove to be correct and there can be no assurance that any of the matters set out in forward-looking statements will actually occur or will be realized or that such matters are complete or accurate. The assumptions may prove to be incorrect and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors, many of which are outside the control of the Group. Actual achievements, results, performance or other future events or conditions may differ materially from those stated, implied and/or reflected in any forward-looking statements due to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors. Any forward-looking statement published on this page is made as at the date of its publishing. MONETA Money Bank, a.s. does not assume, and hereby disclaims, any obligation or duty to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management’s assumptions beliefs, expectations or opinions should change, unless it would be required to do so under applicable law or regulation. For these reasons, recipients should not place reliance on, and are cautioned about relying on, any forward-looking statements.